For years, career advisers pointed young workers toward the trades as an AI-proof path to middle-class wages. The labor market had other plans.

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So much for being a plumber. Job openings for blue-collar trades such as plumbers, electricians, and factory workers have plummeted 40% since 2022. Hiring across manufacturing and construction has fallen to 2009 recession levels — when unemployment was 10%, twice what it is now.

The slowdown has multiple causes, reports the New York Times. Tariff increases have raised costs for manufacturers and repair sectors. Higher interest rates have frozen the housing market, eliminating steady work for tradespeople. Immigration restrictions have cut off the flow of workers willing to do entry-level blue-collar work.

The irony is that white-collar workers are now fleeing to the trades to escape AI automation. Instead, economic cycles, not technology, are determining who gets hired.